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  • almeatprairiefl@msn.com started the topic average box break in the forum Handicapping 9 years, 8 months ago

    evening guys, this goes along with Pups new method using the break as a factor. been tracking PB

    using the av calc, since last sun there have been 75 races run over the 545 course. i did not include

    the fri or sat night performances. so this is avg break, PB 545 with the sun up.

    1 3.4
    2 4.3
    3 4.2
    4 4.3
    5 4.5
    6 5.1
    7 5.3
    8 4.7

    one box is tops. very small sample. if we look at how many times a box broke first or second as a %

    it looks like this
    1 44%
    2 25%
    3 32%
    4 21%
    5 28%
    6 16%
    7 17%
    8 16%

    the 1 2 3 & 5 clearly ahead of the pack here. any thoughts on this? is this enough of an advantage to

    create a box bias adj?

    keep winning

    • Thats an very interesting concept you are studying there but I’m not sure I can add much to it as I’ve never looked into it at all. It doesn’t seem like the box break os following the box win% at all which is interesting. But then again you only have a couple weeks of data which I should warn you, for most things thats not much to go on at all. Like I’ve said before in other videos and posts I learned to never even consider something until I hit 500 races. And thats just the point to make me thing I might be on to something. 1000 races and I start feeling good about it.