Thinning the field (Jacks Method)
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I spent a great day with my friend and long time mentor jack. I watched him thin the field to
pick a winner from and his method was surprisingly simple. So I’m sharing it with you today.
Video
I easily built 2 columns for QD that helps look at the data. One column was LastEighth, just the last 1/8 call for the dog. The other column was LastGrade, the last grade the dog was in based on a 1-6 scale. A=1, B=2, etc. I also added Last3Speed column, average of the last 3 races & a Closing column, improvement of the dog from stretch to finish.
Not sure how it will do but it is a start for me.
I ran a few races at BM was about 60% I am going to check out more, about 200 should do.
Thanks for the videoThanks for the input max and iiicream. I had a few days in a hospital room last week so I ran a lot of races and different tracks. As with anything else your mileage will vary by track. But what you would expect holds true, tracks where early is more important show a greater result and vise versa. The .21 gap also holds about a 60% to 70% gap at most tracks for containing the winner. Interesting to note.
In recent days I have been using a column that ads last 8th to class of dog and the winner comes from top 3 a very high percentage. I do not have a ton of races yet so nothing definitive.
I was hoping to get to hang out with Jack again and learn more about his process. I called last week and his sister said he was very sick. Not sure when or if he will be well enough again to talk and share. But I’m hopeful. Guys like him were killing it when I was too young to even make a wager.
Looking at the last 10 days @ TS using the above method, the lowest # of wins I found was 4, highest was 10 (out of 16 races).
In no particular order the results were (all out of 16 races):
5
10
6
4
9
9
6
6
8
9That’s between 25% – 63% winners on a card.
I did notice that some of those winners paid double-digit (and more). Casually I did notice what seemed to be an above
average # of Qs from the top 3 and also some straight Tris that paid well. I don’t have definite numbers on those but might go thru at a later time to see how it turns out.Here’s an update on TS:
Using top 3 (as above):
Winner found 45%
Q found 15%
Tri found 4% (2 of them straight)Found it very interesting (Arte Johnson impersonation)—Will try to make time & do PB tomorrow.
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